As reported · FY2025
$1.238bn
Transaction margin dollars, a non-IFRS measure after processing and servicing, credit-loss provision, and funding costs.
CAS RESEARCH · 31 AUGUST 2026
Core and future earning power
A reported-results bridge, followed by the exact limits on a responsible forecast.
Current earning power: the observable boundary
As reported · FY2025
$65m
Adjusted operating profit, also non-IFRS. IFRS operating loss was $230m.
The 80% / 9% Pay Later / Fair Financing mix describes volume, but the filing does not provide the product-level margins needed to allocate either earnings measure. We therefore do not call an allocation “core earnings.”
Returns to scale observed, not assumed
| FY2025 vs FY2024 | Change | Incremental conversion |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | +$698m | base |
| Transaction margin dollars | +$21m | 3.009% · our calc |
| Adjusted operating profit | −$116m | −16.619% · our calc |
This one-year realized bridge does not demonstrate positive incremental margins: Fair Financing mix growth and higher upfront ECL provision were material headwinds. It is historical evidence, not a steady-state forecast.
Future earnings projection: honest omission
A numerical forecast would require at least product-level take rates, loss curves, funding costs, servicing costs, growth by product, and a defensible incremental operating-cost assumption. Klarna does not disclose that set. The auditable framework is:
future operating earnings = Σ(product GMV × product transaction-margin rate) − future operating expenses
Because both product margin rates and the incremental expense path are absent, we omit a point estimate and scenario numbers rather than invent inputs. The filing record makes the missing data explicit.
Source: Klarna Group plc 2025 Form 20-F, filed 26 February 2026, pages 132–139 and 151–160. Local source and calculation record: JSON. All product economics on these pages are public-filing data or explicitly labeled “our calc”; no Apptopia data is used.